فصلنامه فضای جغرافیایی
پیاپی 45 (بهار 1393)

Rainfall is the most variable climatic element. Spatial and temporal distribution because of its widespread use in agriculture، water resources، industry، the operation of dams and irrigation is important. According to the study of rainfall behavior in the Ahar area that is one of the important agriculture regions on North West of Iran; monthly rainfalls data of this station during statistical period (1965-2005) have been obtained from meteorological organization. To achieve research objectives، the methods of moving average، SPI index and graphical Mann-Kendal tests were used. Applications of the moving average annual rainfall data indicate an increase in rainfall phases (second half 1970) and lower (second half 1990)، respectively. Mann–Kendal test although volatility and the significant reduction trend in the amount of winter precipitation approved، but showed no significant trend in total precipitation for the period of most months، other seasons and a total annual precipitation. Also SPI method confirmed the tendency of regional climate trends toward shorter drought periods. Results of this research can support the programmers in confrontation with negative precipitation variations and also using of the climatic potentials of the region

Tourism and related opportunities are one of the best known strategies of rural development in the field of entrepreneurship. Opportunity identification is key component of the entrepreneurial process and one of the main factors in the survival and development. In this research we discus about process identifying entrepreneurial opportunities in rural tourism in Varzegan region. It includes collecting، classification and analyzing and modeling information related to tourism and entrepreneurship through GIS and MCDM. The result shows that rural areas of Varzegan region have suitable entrepreneurial opportunities for rural tourism

Fluvial forms are important subjects in geomorphology. With regards to energy in water flow، rivers can be considered as important morphogenetic factors. Rivers flow in different states on the earth surface. Overflowing of rivers causes geomorphologic features in bed، course and floodplain. The following items are studied in this research: 1) estimating maximum discharge in some sections of meanders، 2) forms of beds 3) forms of overflowed lands 4) features on the courses of river because of overflowing. Cutting، side erosion، and sedimentation after overflowing are most important problems which take place in meanders. Moreover of field studies and morphometries of channels in the laboratory aerial photos، geologic maps (S. 1:100000)، topographic maps (S. 1:250000) of the studying region through software such as ArcView، AutoCAD and Excel which are used for pursuing these aims. The results have shown that most of the cutting activities and channel changes are related to large periodical floods.

Regarding the importance of rural development in the national development process of Iran، the government has been considered different approaches and strategies to achieve rural development goals in the recent years that one of the most important of them is rural guide plans. Despite initial objectives and programs of rural guide plans in order to achieve rural development in different regions of the country، it seems that preparing and implementing these plans have been encountered with numerous problems and obstacles in various dimensions caused to reduce the effectiveness and efficiency of the plans. Thus، the main question of the survey is، what barriers there are against preparing and conducting the guide plans in rural regions. In this respect، the main purpose of this descriptive- survey research was to study and analyze the barriers of implementing the guide plans in the rural regions of Osko County. The statistical population of the research consisted of 130 persons out of 213 households in the village that they were selected according to Krejcie & Morgan table and by simple random sampling technique. The data collection instrument was a questionnaire that its validity confirmed by a panel of experts. A pilot study was conducted to establish reliability of the instrument. Cronbach''s alpha coefficient for the scale of importance of the barriers of implementing the guide plan in the Sarin Dizaj village was equal to 0. 82. Collected data were analyzed using the SPSSWin18 software. The results of factor analysis revealed that six factors، namely، spatial-physical، administrative- financial، managerial، environmental، educational- cognitive and technical- timing، explain 68. 94 percent of total variances of barriers of implementing the rural guide plan in Sarin Dizaj village.

Various kinds of information applied for land use planning bring complexity to the process. Therefore، application of decision making methods، which may decrease such limitations during land use planning، is suggested. The aim of this study is environmental capability evaluation of the land، based on two methods of decision making including analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy simple additive weighting (FSAW) in order to develop rangeland management of Gheshlagh dam watershed area (parcel A in Kordestan Province) in western Iran. The information was collected and classified into ecological and socio-economic variables. The classified variables were categorized and weighted on the basis of pair-wise comparison and fuzzy triangular function. Then، criteria layers were prepared and overlaid according to AHP and FSAW methods. The results showed that FSAW method is more precise and compatible to real nature of environmental issues when applied for land use planning purposes. Also according to the results we specified that eastern parts of the study area had higher suitability to develop rangeland management.

Conformity of human with natural has led to the formation of network of population movements in valleys and mountain areas of the Firouzkooh Township. Capacity and elasticity of population retention in the study area is a function of ecological، economic and social. Key questions are factors and outcomes affecting in network of population flows in the Firouzkooh Township. The methodology is exploratory، descriptive and analytical. The data is derived from 25 villages and 436 households in the sample of operation. The samples selected based on a formula taking Cochran and far away، nearby villages and the town of Firouzkooh each other. Based on survey results، the population flows of Firouzkooh Township are rotation، multi-place and episodic. Jobs and climatic factors were dominant in the formation of the spatial network. Other factors also are: lack of facilities، leisure، visiting relatives، monitoring properties and assets، tribal history، insufficient income، and living life، following the occupation and education of children، sickness، silence and peace، prosperity and failure. Consequences of spatial network are also circular immigration، construction of second homes، and tourism functionality extension.

Housing sector is known as the most important part of development in any society. Providing adequate and acceptable housing for all the fast growing urban population has always been and still is a big challenge in developing countries such as Iran. For this، the main goal of this paper is to evaluate the low income public housing policies in the city of Zanjan for the purpose of highlighting the merits and dismerits. For the analysis of results، the SPSS software and documentary as well as field works have been used. By applying Cochran formula، the reliability of the questionnaires has been estimated in about of 0. 71، which indicate that the questions of questionnaire have designed appropriately. Findings show that the public housing policies paid little attention to the social and economic characteristics of low income families and this has affected its success to some extent. By results of this study، we can argue that the policies have positively affected informal settlements and decreased the number of outskirt settlements between the years 1996 and 2006. In addition، Housing projects in terms of land use patterns and responding to the needs of families were essentially appropriate and successful.

In the process of making urban environment suitable، it is necessary to create spaces that have been adapted to today’s needs، as well as having requisite elements of executing security and being organized to adjust with modern technology. Recently valuable attention has been paid to the security in our country as it’s practical consequences is to be gradually perceived، but no decision has been made to respond whole of the field security. This study was done with the purpose of studying urban neighborhoods security improvement in the north Janat Abad neighborhood in Tehran. The aim of this research is to identify the effective factors on the security of the people living in north Janat Abad neighborhood. From this base، the degree of security with creation of experimental model of security assessment (value tree) and surveying in 3 levels of functional، physical and social aspects is evaluated. Using questionnaire technique for collected data of 314 statistical samples we also used SPSS software for analysis of the data. According to the results، the variables relationship with «amount of security in north Janat Abad neighborhood» in 3 levels «functional»، «physical»، «social» have been proved. Between variables، identity of the neighborhood was the most effective factor on the degree of security of the area under study

Earthquake is known as one of the most destructive natural phenomena that causes a wide range of disasters: irrespective of the economic losses that are inflicted on the city, and in a smaller scale on the citizens, the human losses, and also the psychological problems caused by the death of the relatives, homelessness and insecurity are all known as a crisis caused by earthquake. Since it is impossible to prevent earthquake, we should look for proper approaches to confront this phenomenon. More importantly, surveying the features and the characteristics of the cities should be carried out as the basis of preventive actions towards earthquake because if we suppose the seismic intensity to be equal, it’s the urban features and structures that can change a natural phenomenon to a human catastrophe. The present article aims to survey the most significant global and national experiences related to decreasing the vulnerabilities to earthquakes, and also re-defining the set of urban-designing approaches in order to reduce damages of earthquakes. Based on the given data, the research method is qualitative and attributive. The results show that the global experiences put emphasis on city texture, including open spaces, the connection network, and physical structures, while in Iran, irrespective of the studies by the JICA group, most of the assaying and damage-decreasing modeling cases have been performed in terms of single-structures and the social features have been ignored. Finally, we should say that, just in the circumstances that we set the plans of “urban-safety against earthquake” as a goal in all the stages of planning, especially the urban planning programs, we would be able to reduce the vulnerability of the cities toward seismic problems.

In various parts of our country observed environmental changes can have extensive unforeseen ramification. The objective of this research were to map and determine the nature، extent and rate of changes and to analyze the spatio-temporal land use/cover change patterns and fragmentation that has occurred in Ardebil Municipality. Multi-temporal satellite images (TM1988، ETM+ 1998 and IRS2007) and required thematic maps were acquired and land cover maps for 1988، 1998 and 2007 were generated and change detection analysis was performed. Distinct changes have occurred on the land use/cover. Built up areas increased from 2241. 2 ha (10. 59%) to 3310. 9 ha (15. 64%) from 1988-1998 and to 4504. 5 ha (21. 27%) in 2007. While non-built-up area (water bodies، irrigated and non-irrigated crops، pastures and bare soils) decreased from 89. 4% to 84. 36% and 87. 73% respectively. The rate of change was +5. 3% for built up areas. The spatial metric calculation e. g.، number of patch (NP)، large patch index (LPI)، mean patch size (MPS) and percentage of landscape (PLAND) revealed a continued growth in the built up surface and Three stages (i. e. diffusion، coalescence and scale up) can be seen in built up areas in Ardebil municipality and Rapid urban growth was contiguous to the historical urban core with middle fragmentation.

Travel demand for forecasting is one of the most important components in the transportation planning. Therefore، in transportation planning، travel demand for forecasting is needed. The traditional model of comprehensive transportation system، anticipates the process in four stages، in which travel demand is distinct from other similar models and actual interaction between the various stages are not considered. Travel demand is estimated at less Holistic، through other models such as regression models and model predictions. This paper presents an applied approach to travel demand forecasting model based on promises available in the GIS environment. Resolution models are presented، based on travel demand in walking distance of 500 meters BRT stations will be assessed. Principles and data models used to describe the appropriate model based on data in a GIS framework to model implementation is developed. Finally، a case based on travel demand forecast model output in Tabriz، the negative exponential model based on access to the estimated logistic model with an estimated 250966 and 268892 people a day، the travel demand Metropolis Tabriz BRT stations based on specific needs has been suggested based on these results is presented.

Popular view of the development in the past ignorant to the distribution of special possibilities and under-constructions in different grounds in proportion with special capabilities of each region has formed present face of central cities. On the other hand، because of the problems such as savings arising from scale of possible attention and presentation of services and possibilities for each one of rural areas is not possible in action that will cause severity of communications between surrounding rural areas with central city for removing economic، social and service necessities. In present research we have tried to determine place and role of surrounding areas concerning with city and its development، with the use of environmental، economic، social and physical powers present methods which results in safe communication of surrounding areas with Shabestar. In this research، analytic method is descriptive–analytical using SWOT model، we tried to know the existing state of affairs، operations and actions and also possibilities and limitations of Shabestar and its surrounding area. Acquired results from data analysis have shown the role of surrounding areas in Shabestar development.